Predicting Netflix’s Biggest Hits of 2026 (The What’s on Netflix Draft)

With Netflix’s 2026 slate just revealed, we thought it was the perfect time to turn speculation into a friendly but competitive draft. Using the titles revealed during Netflix’s Next on Netflix 2026 showcase, Jacob and I have each built a team designed to rack up the biggest viewership numbers straight out of the gate. Welcome to the What’s on Netflix 2026 draft. 

The Rules: With only one exception allowed (The Adventures of Cliff Booth), the titles we have to pick from must be featured in the Next on Netflix 2026 reveals. 

The views from the first two weeks will determine who wins. That means we’re banking on shows or movies that come out of the gate swinging instantly. At the time of writing, the majority of Netflix’s international slate has not been revealed, so we’ll just be picking one series each in this category for the year. 

Sitenote: Is this the best way to determine a show or movie’s success? No. KPOP Demon Hunters last year would’ve been a terrible pick here in 2025, given that it really didn’t take off until week 3 and beyond, but it’s the best measure we’ve got for the purposes of this article. We initially planned to use the Netflix Engagement Reports, but they will take too long to determine success and put titles at a disadvantage towards the end of the year.  

What we’re picking: 

• 3 Returning Series Each
• 2 New Shows Each
• 1 International Show (New or Returning)
• 3 Movies Each (Including a Gifted Potential Bomb)

Coin toss won by Jacob for the TV shows, and then Kasey gets first picks for movies. 

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Returning Shows 

Bridgerton S4 – Jacob First Pick

With the end of Stranger Things and Squid Game in 2025, Bridgerton has become Netflix’s de facto flagship series alongside Wednesday. Birdgerton is one of the ONLY series on Netflix that continues to grow its audience season after season, and I can’t see that stopping anytime soon for the fourth season. In fact, the release of season 4 could propel the series to the all-time top ten list for the fourth consecutive time, with the first and third seasons currently ranking 6th and 8th, respectively. As far as I see it, Bridgerton will be the most popular original series on Netflix in 2026, unless something changes significantly.

From its cast, to the costumes, to the set design, to the music, fans simply can’t get enough of Bridgerton.

One Piece Season 2 – Kasey First Pick

I wanted Bridgerton on this spot, don’t get me wrong. It’s the only returning show for the entire year with prior entries on the all-time most-watched list, and while One Piece season 1 did well, whether it can grow in season 2 is not yet known. The new season looks like it’s made with just as much passion as the first and then some, with some stunning visuals having already been released for the return so far, and that’s not mentioning that the cast has swelled with some very talented people joining the roster this time around.

The Gentlemen S2 – Jacob Second Pick

The first season of The Gentlemen was a huge hit, with great comedy and a story that kept you on the edge of your seat from beginning to end. Not to mention, it featured an excellent ensemble cast including Kaya Scodelario, Daniel Ings, and Theo James, who has been considered a contender to play the next James Bond. The Gentlemen movie was great, and the series greater still, and a fantastic return to form for Guy Ritchie. The British crime-comedy sets itself apart from the pack, giving it an added comedic edge that could propel it to another major success.

The Night Agent S3 – Kasey Second Pick

Season 1 of The Night Agent was an absolute smash hit, but season 2 dropped quite substantially in views. But what I’m banking on here is not a significant growth in views, but a decent hold, because if it manages that, it’ll still be incredibly solid. I’m also hoping that Netflix’s commitment to a future fourth season (although not officially renewed as of the publication of this article) is an indication that the upcoming third entry will deliver. We’ve got more international locations this season and new cast members. Hopefully, that creates a package that people will want to return to watch. 

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Black Doves S2 – Jacob Third Pick

Keira Knightley and Ben Whishaw were an incredible pairing in Joe Barton’s British spy thriller. Well acted, a fantastic script, phenomenal drama that features an array of colorful and dysfunctional characters, what’s not to love about Black Doves? It’s my hope that Black Doves will be one of the very few Netflix Originals to ever grow its audience in the second season, and there’s certainly potential. If Knightley and Whishaw can bring the same chemistry they had together onscreen from season 1, then it’s a recipe for success.

Not to mention the stakes for the second season are only going to be higher, as Knightley’s character, Helen, finds herself at the heart of British politics as the “First Lady” of the United Kingdom while maintaining her position as a ‘Black Dove’ spy.

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Outer Banks S5 – Kasey Third Pick

One of the major shows coming to an end in 2026 is Outer Banks, and while I’m not overly confident it can get a season viewership high, especially given how many fans are publicly quite against the show with the demise of JJ, I think it’ll be solid enough. This season will be an emotional send-off to the Pogues and features a new compelling international location, which should add to its appeal. Als,o its performance may rest on how well the series is pushed in advance, drawing in viewers to rewatch or watch the early seasons for the first time. I suspect much of Netflix’s own anticipation for the series will be whether we see the return of Poguelandia.

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Debut Shows for 2026

Little House on the Prairie – Jacob First Pick

Laura Ingalls Wilder’s Little House on the Prairie is one of the most beloved book series in American history. Not to mention, millions of people would fondly remember growing up watching NBC’s television adaptation (and reruns). While there have been a small number of adaptations since, none have matched the original’s popularity, so, arguably, Little House on the Prairie will receive a major release for the first time in over 40 years.

Lastly, Netflix has made a significant move in recent years by releasing Hallmark-esque, family-friendly dramas that subscribers have watched in huge numbers. I suspect the same audience will also adore Little House on the Prairie.

Man on Fire – Kasey First Pick

I’m coming out of the gate with a bold swing. We’ve only gotten limited details about this globe-trotting adaptation of the novel that Denzel Washington famously bought to live two decades ago, but given the budget and talent involved, I’m banking on this becoming a huge hit akin to the way The Night Agent came out swinging a few years back. Action is universal and that’s what I’m banking on here. 

Based on A.J. Quinnell’s novels, Man on Fire follows John Creasy, a former Special Forces mercenary battling severe PTSD who seeks redemption but is forced back into a brutal fight for survival. The series is led by writer and showrunner Kyle Killen, directed in part by Steven Caple Jr., and stars Yahya Abdul-Mateen II alongside Bobby Cannavale, Alice Braga, and Scoot McNairy. 

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East of Eden – Jacob Second Pick

I think East of Eden could be the boldest pick on my list. Once again, a pick involving another beloved American author, this time John Steinbeck. There’s some family history to this production, as showrunner Zoe Kazan is the granddaughter of Elia Kazan, the director of the 1955 film adaptation. Maybe I’m too sentimental, but I find it wonderfully poetic and ironic that a book whose story is centered on a family across several decades is being adapted by a family whose involvement with the source material also spans several decades. Sentimental value aside, the series also stars Florence Pugh, whose star power is huge right now, and her name alone will be enough to bring plenty of attention to the project.

Pride and Prejudice – Kasey Second Pick

I couldn’t leave all the period dramas to Jacob, and for this pick, I’m betting on the fact that this well-told story will have a built-in global fanbase and awareness and, in combination with a killer team behind and in front of the camera, deliver a faithful and bingeable rendition of the story that’s become a global household name. It’s got big boots to fill, but the name recognition from the off should see it score big numbers. Amongst that cast are Emma Corrin, Olivia Colman, Jack Lowden, and Rufus Sewell. What’s not to love?

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I Will Find You – Jacob Third Pick

Three things in life are certain: death, taxes, and more Netflix adaptations of Harlan Coben’s stacked library. Since 2018, Netflix has been adapting all the latest Harlan Coben novels it can get its hands on, and I Will Find You will be the 13th adaptation by the streaming service. The series is led by Sam Worthington, who once again achieved major Hollywood success at the box office with James Cameron’s third Avatar film, and Britt Lower, who continues to play a leading role in Apple’s wildly popular psychological thriller Severance. The story is centered on Worthington’s character, David Burroughs, a man wrongfully imprisoned for the murder of his receives information that his son may still be alive. Crime thrillers are a passion of many Netflix subscribers, and I Will Find You will draw many of them in, without a doubt.

The Boroughs – Kasey Third Pick

Big swing for my final pick, and I’m hoping for more Duffer Brothers magic for this series, even if they’re just in producing roles with Jeffrey Addiss and Will Matthews serving as the creators. That pairing, in case you didn’t know, worked on The Dark Crystal: Age of Resistance, a series that I still have a massive fondness for and remember watching throughout with a smile on my face. Hopefully, that same level of fun, detail, and passion shines through.

Mixing with those creative engines is a cast that’s headlined by Bill Pullman, Geena Davis, Clarke Peters, Alfred Molina, and Alfre Woodard. That’s an impressive cast regardless of the project. The plot, at least for me, is a bit… whatever at the moment, and not entirely convinced, but we’ll see what ultimately materializes.

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1 International Show (Returning or New)

Boyfriend on Demand – Jacob

One name: Jisoo. Not only is Jisoo a member of one of the biggest K-pop idol groups ever, Blackpink, but she is also the lead vocalist. She has also appeared in K-dramas such as Snowdrop and Newtopia, but Boyfriend of Demand will be her full Netflix debut, and wherever she goes, her fans will follow in their millions.

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Jo Nesbo’s Detective Hole – Kasey

I should’ve gone for two safer bets here (Lupin S4 or Berlin S2 would’ve been much wiser), but given that I think Jacob has immediately got me beat, I wanted to make a bolder bet on a brand new show. Netflix has put a lot of oomph behind the marketing of this show. Coming in late March, the series mostly relies on some of the region’s best talent but also features a few familiar faces, such as Joel Kinnaman, for a murder mystery that’s always been a bankable genre for the streamer. Nordic murder mystery series are always top quality and given the calibre of book this one is adapting, I have high hopes.

New Movies

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew – Kasey First Pick

There was no other choice for the top spot in my mind. The amount of hype that’s already been built over the past year or so, ever since we scooped that Greta Gerwig was on board to direct, has been palpable. There is some trepidation about some of the choices made creatively so far, but Barbie was one of the biggest box office surprises in the last few years, and with that alone, I trust. It’s also one of the few Netflix movies built on established beloved IP, with a lot of this year’s movie slate relying entirely on books, not as well-known as Narnia by any stretch, or original works.

The only potential downside, at least for how this draft works, is that it IS getting a sizeable theatrical release, meaning it will inevitably take away from the views it scores on Netflix, as people won’t be clamoring for a rewatch (or, fingers crossed, they will).

War Machine – Jacob First Pick

Action movies have a proven track record on Netflix and are often among the highest performers for the streaming service. A key factor in War Machine’s potential success on the platform is Alan Ritchson’s involvement, whose popularity has only continued to grow year on year since taking on the role of Jack Reacher in Amazon Prime Video’s Reacher. With an outstanding ensemble cast that stars the likes of Dennis Quaid, Stephen James, and Jai Courtney, it’s hard not to see War Machine as an inevitable success.

Here Comes The Flood – Kasey Second Pick

Denzel Washington. He’s a force of nature, and we’ve seen across the years in the daily top 10s and the Engagement Reports (and at the box office and other metrics away from Netflix) that he’s one of the few actors in the world who can elevate a project and draw eyeballs based on his name alone. Beyond Washington, it’s got a heist plot that we’ve seen generally has global appeal, and Simon Kinberg has delivered some excellent scripts in the past and has a good track record. The director, Fernando Meirelles, has had various successes in the past, but is a bit of an unknown quantity on a project of this scale.

That’s not to mention Washington’s co-stars are also favorites across generations. Robert Pattinson is a millennial heartthrob, and Daisy Edgar-Jones definitely has Gen Z locked down.”

APEX – Jacob Second Pick

All three actors involved in Apex have had success on Netflix projects: Theron in The Old Guard, Egerton in Carry On, and Eric Bana in Untamed. The biggest success lands at Taron Egerton’s feet thanks to Carry On, which currently ranks 3rd in Netflix’s all-time most-watched English-language movie list. Suffice it to say, the actor is a huge draw to the project, but what intrigues me most is that this time he will play the antagonist, who is hunting the rock climber played by Charlize Theron. Seeing that pairing at odds with each other will be a fascinating watch and a potential major draw for Netflix subscribers.

Enola Holmes 3 – Kasey Third Pick

Maybe it’s Stranger Things fever still in me, but I don’t think the fact that it’s nearly been four years (!) since Enola Holmes 2 hit will dampen Millie Bobby Brown’s draw on Netflix even if the underlying movie isn’t that good (see The Electric State or even Damsel). With returning favorites and the movie placed front and center in Netflix’s ad campaign for the year, I’m banking on this sequel managing to pull in the eyeballs from the off, even if they tail off quickly in the following weeks. The first two movies did extremely well in the top 10s and I’m betting on the same happening for the third entry. 

The Rip – Jacob Third Pick

I was torn between selecting Animals and The RIP. Both films have their plaudits, but what drew me to The RIP was the chance to see the on-screen pairing of best friends Matt Damon and Ben Affleck again, whose chemistry typically amplifies the films they star in together. As an action-thriller, it goes without saying that it’s an easy draw for many Netflix subscribers, but what intrigues me the most is the story itself, which gives me a reverse-reservoir dogs vibe as a team of cops, whose trust begins to wane after discovering millions of dollars inside a stash house. I am incredibly excited to see how this story pans out and how well it will do with audiences.

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The Gifted Movie (Potential Whiffs)

The Adventures of Cliff Booth – Gifted to Jacob

Be under no illusion that I’m absolutely psyched that we’re getting a follow-up to Once Upon A Time in Hollywood, one of my favorite Tarantino movies, and David Fincher’s work is always top-tier. But, how widely does the general public care about a return to this world, especially on Netflix? I’m not sure it’s going to have the wide appeal, and if it gets the rumored theatrical release, hardcore fans like me won’t be watching on Netflix.

The Whisper Man – Gifted to Kasey

The Whisper Man has all the makings of a huge hit rather than a whiff on paper. It has everything it needs to be a major success: the story, the cast, and producer duo The Russo Brothers. However, we’ve been here before with The Electric State and The Gray Man. I’m perhaps being harsh on The Gray Man, as it is ranked 9th on the all-time movie list; however, at the time, the film was projected to perform numbers similar to Red Notice. As for The Electric State, Netflix did not manage to get much mileage out of its behemoth $320 million budget. But a positive for the Russo Brothers was the Extraction franchise, which has not only produced two major successful films but has also spawned multiple spin-offs in development. It has everything needed to be a huge success, but I’m willing to take a punt on it flopping too.”

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To recap the teams:

Jacob	Kasey
Bridgerton S4	One Piece S2
The Gentlemen S2	The Night Agent S3
Black Doves S3	Outer Banks S5
Little House on the Prairie	Man on Fire
East of Eden	Pride and Prejudice
I Will Find You	The Boroughs
Boyfriend on Demand	Jo Nesbo’s Detective Hole
War Machine	Narnia
APEX	Here Comes the Flood
The Rip	Enola Holmes 3
Adventures of Cliff Booth	The Whisper Man

You can find our draft sheet for the year here on Google Docs, which we’ll keep updated semi-regularly. Whose team are you voting for here? Who will come out with the most views at the end of 2026? Let us know in the comments below.