Warrior Nun debuted its second season on Netflix in early November 2022 and while fans loudly expected a third season it’s not to be. As predicted, Netflix has chosen to cancel the show and it all comes down to performance, as we’ll break down below.
Coming from Simon Barry (behind Bad Blood, Van Helsing and Continuum), the series first debuted in July 2020 and after a relatively quick renewal, returned for season 2 on November 10th, 2022.
Starring Alba Baptista, Toya Turner, and Thekla Reuten, the show follows a young woman who wakes up in a morgue with a new artifact in her back and discovers she’s part of an ancient order.
Has Netflix renewed or canceled Warrior Nun for a season 3?
Official Renewal Status: Canceled on December 13th, 2022
Our Renewal Prediction: Likely cancelation
Despite setting up a third season, Netflix has opted to not renew the show for a third season according to Deadline’s reporting that states viewership was the issue (more on this in a second).
Showrunner Simon Barry reacted to the news on Twitter:
I’ve just found out that @netflix will not be renewing #WarriorNun – my sincere appreciation to all the fans who worked so hard to bring awareness to this series, and for the love you showed me, the cast and the whole production team. It was a privilege to be a part of this. ❤️ pic.twitter.com/eZIBa4tJYm
— Simon Barry (@SimonDavisBarry) December 13, 2022
Unfortunetely, the early performance of the show didn’t look good from the first week’s stats, and demand externally cratered quickly following its release. You could argue it was released amongst a busy slate, and marketing wasn’t the best, but numbers thus far aren’t great.
According to the showrunner, Netflix spent $0 on promotion.
As we’ve discussed, Netflix looks into multiple metrics when it comes to renewing shows; for the most part, viewership is king. Netflix will look at cost vs viewership and the number of starters vs. the number of completions.
This seems to be determined by total @netflix views and full s2 completion rate, in the first 28 days. So tell every living soul you know to watch it, and watch all 8 eps within the shortest reasonable time frame. Also repeat viewing is encouraged. I have no say whatsoever.😐 https://t.co/pEoXb2EWw8
— Simon Barry (@SimonDavisBarry) November 18, 2022
Simon Barry, showrunner for Warrior Nun, spoke to ScreenRant, saying that they do have plans for future seasons saying:
“Of course, when you end a season as writers, you always want to make sure that you’ve not written yourself into a corner. And yes, we did have a notion about what season 3 could be and how that would look. But of course, it’s up to the fans. If they show up in big numbers. Netflix will make the right decision. And so hopefully, that’s what will happen.”
Another interview suggests Barry is hopeful to have five to seven seasons when all is said and done. Sadly, that won’t come to pass.
How well is Warrior Nun performing on Netflix?
In this segment, you’ll notice that we compare the performance of Warrior Nun to Fate: The Winx Saga. Some may argue that’s an unfair comparison, but ultimately, both are sci-fi fantasy YA shows with big budgets and heavy on VFX. Both also debuted their first seasons in a similar time frame as each other and both had to wait long periods before returning after the pandemic. Fate, as you may know, was recently canceled by Netflix.
Let’s begin with hours watched provided by Netflix’s top 10s.
The show debuted at rank 6 in week 1 with 26.22 million global hours. In week 2, viewing hours grew 6% to 27.74M, but it wasn’t the big boom the show likely needed.
In week 3, its viewership dropped a whopping 57%. Anything above 50% is usually a sign that a show has cratering viewership and will not be enough to justify another season.
In total, between November 6th and November 27th, 2022 the show picked up 65.93 million hours globally.
|Week Period||Hours Viewed(M)||Rank||Week in Top 10|
|November 6th, 2022 to November 13th, 2022||26,220,000||6||1|
|November 13th, 2022 to November 20th, 2022||27,740,000 (+6%)||5||2|
|November 20th, 2022 to November 27th, 2022||11,970,000 (-57%)||9||3|
One positive factor was that in week 2, Warrior Nun season 1 featured in the top 10s with 20.10M hours viewed, meaning the relentless fan campaigning may have encouraged viewers otherwise on the fence to try the show.
Again, looking at Fate: The Winx Saga, it too saw a bounce in viewership for season 1 but it wasn’t enough to keep the show going.
When looking at it in CVE terms (that means taking the number of hours Netflix provides and dividing it by the show length), we can see that the show debuted in week 1 with a 4.5M CVE. That’s half what Fate: The Winx Saga did in week one.
FlixPatrol data, which looks at raw top 10 data suggests the show peaked in most regions in the first three days of being on the platform. Crucially, top 10 rankings collapsed in week 2.
Their heatmap suggests the show performs best in European countries, including Portugal, France, Italy, Belgium, and Nordic regions.
In the United States, the show lasted for eight days in the TV top 10s before dropping out.
What about external demand for Warrior Nun?
Google Trends offers the starkest comparison in terms of demand for both shows. You can see both peaked during their season 1 debuts and both have failed even to generate half the demand following the season 2 debut Warrior Nun is underperforming compared with Fate: The Winx Saga.
What we expected from Warrior Nun season 3
Warning: spoilers ahead.
Before digging into what is expected from season 3 of Warrior Nun, let’s quickly recap the events of episode 8 of season 2 entitled “Jeremiah 29:13”.
The official synopsis for the final episode was as follows:
“Ava visits the other realm and returns with a new plan to end Adriel’s unholy charade — but it will require superhuman strength and painful sacrifices.”
By the end of season 2, a war is fully brewing with season 2 ending on multiple big cliffhangers but arguably some of the bigger overaching questions being wrapped.
Adriel has been defeated having been discovered to be controlling the Earth but with that threat gone, another bigger one will take its place which will be the main driver of a third season. Add to that the lingering questions over the Halo and Lilith’s transformation.
Beyond that, the order has been mostly rebuilt so will it be able to sustain itself in season 3 with the lingering threats and as for relationships that’s been mostly resolved too with Ava confessing her love for Beatrice.
One Redditor predicts that the “Third season would be establishing the events leading to the holy war, 4th season. So this could be the last if the show doesn’t gain enough traction.”
Do you hope Netflix renews Warrior Nun for a season 3? Let us know in the comments down below.